Sunday 28 November 2010

Changes in [Recipe: Savory Deviate Delight]'s droprate


On most servers the once rare [Recipe: Savory Deviate Delight] is now flooding the Horde's Auction Houses.

  • Avoiding losses

Be sure to take the recipe out of your snatch list.
Since the prices are collapsing you don't want to buy one for mistake.
If you have already some of these recipes and were planning to flip them, start selling them one-by-one on the Alliance AH... Try not to lower the price of the item, if you have to undercut somebody try not to undercut him too much (remember, a single copper is all that is needed).

  • Making money

You should check the difference in price between the Horde's Auction House and the Alliance one: while the rising number of recipes has already lowered their price for the Horde, this could not be true for the Alliance. This can and will change wildly from server to server (and even from day to day).
If you have a way to do cross-faction trading*, this could can a really good source of money: I'm now buying these recipes horde-side for 50-80 gold and selling them to the Alliance for 750-850 gold.
The profits will diminish in the next few days, but I think you'll still make money from this for a long time, if you're careful... Cross-faction trading is always a sure gain and these recipes will still be more common for the Horde than for the Alliance: you should just double-check you're buying them cheap enough.

Saturday 27 November 2010

Recognizing pre-Cataclysm deals



Now, everyone and is mother is trying to dump their WotLK goodies before Cataclysm hits... wait!
I know lots of people already talked about it! You surely have read already a lot of advices, like buying [Saronite Ore] (under 62.5 silver a piece you can smelt it and sell the [Saronite Bar] to a vendor for profit, so saronite stockpiling can be totally risk-free, depending on the prices on your server) or [Abyss Crystal] (it's the best way to stock enchanting mats, since you can break it... and in some server it's getting cheaper than [Greater Cosmic Essence]).
These are useful advices, but depending on the economy of your server they could not work... For instance, a stack of [Saronite Ore] still goes for 23-26 gold on my server (there as been a beautiful week in which they went for 12.50 gold a stack, but then someone has started to drain the market stockpiling for Cataclysm...). 

The problem is, when a "niche" is found and posted on a blog, there is probably some other player in you real that will start to do his/her best (or worse) to follow the advice, making things difficult for you.

Some times the solution is simple: you should read the advice, ask yourself "how did this blogger managed to find this trick?" and start to apply the same reasoning yourself, to find other ways of doing gold... Blaming the competition isn't an excuse: there are so many different things that can be done in farming the AH, that no competition could cover them all.

So, how much will today's mats be worth come Cataclysm?
There is an easy way to get an idea: look for the prices of the corresponding BC mats (i.e. check the price of primals when deciding if you should buy eternals). I'm seeing that some of the WotLK in my server are dropping in price and are now cheaper than the corresponding mats from BC. If you consider also the inflation that we will see in Cataclysm, anything cheaper than his BC counterpart will be more valuable some months after Cataclysm... Obviously, try to run [Golden Draenite] and similar exceptions out of the equation.
This is actually just a rule of the thumb, that doesn't take into account lots of things, but for the most common mats it will work. If you want it's still a good thing to check wowhead to better understand why the item is worth (I hope you should already have at least an idea of this, if you're considering buying it... Never buy an item you don't know!)
Even if you don't do extensive researches, if you will, as you should always, diversify, you'll gain a lot more than what you'll loose. Buy different mats for every crafting professions! If people are willing to buy something from BC for 10 gold now, they'll surely pay more for the same kind of thing when Cataclysm comes! Remember, there will be 3 major reason for BC and WotLK mats price increase:
  • Inflation
  • Remotion of portals from Dalaran and Shattrath (until 4.0.3 farming BC materials was easier than how it will be farming BC and WotLK materials from now on)
  • Flying in Azeroth: more people will farm mats in Azeroth than in the Outlands and Northrend... Surely a larger percentage than now, since the possibility to fly will make it a lot easier, and the zones will be closer to where the characters are than in the last two expansions.
You could also consider the reduction of XP needed for leveling from 71-80: even if people choose gathering professions, they will stay less time in Northrend than they did before.

So, try not to stop at Saronite... Everyone is buying these. Continue to buy it if it's at the right price, but stockpile different things... The more you diversify the better! You can be nearly sure of avoiding losses, and you'll be ready to gain from every fluctuation in your server's market.

Tuesday 23 November 2010

I'm not going to post for some days

You could have noticed I didn't post anything in the past few days.
I'm sorry, but I was very busy preparing for an exam (university), and now I'll take two day off just to relax (away from my computer :/). I'll surely write something before the weekend (or during it).

[that's just to say: No, I didn't stopped caring about my blog after just a week ^_^]

Thursday 18 November 2010

Make your low-level banker a scribe!

Not everyone has lot of level-capped alts, so I want to share this advice to those of you that have just one or two level 80 characters. You'll probably have some really low-level character that could make a profit out of Inscription!
As it is now, Inscription becomes valuable at skill level 75, when you start making "Minor Inscription Research" that let you learn new Glyphs. Since the Glyph you (as for everyone else) learn is random, you could end up with some very valuable Glyphs known. So you just need a level 5 character to start to gain thousands of golds from this profession.
You can do this also if you already have a scribe and you want to double the number of minor research you can do... But you should be aware that this will be good just on the short time (sooner or later you'll discover everything anyway) and can make management quite tricky. Try it at your own risk!

Obviously, it's better if you don't use the character with which you play the AH game... It could fill your bags even more and make things messy. Do it just if you're sure you can handle it.

Wednesday 17 November 2010

Guide: How and Why you should level an alt

Today I'm posting the first "Guide" of this blog... I'm creating a "Guides" section so everything will be easily accessible. I'm trying not to repeat things too easy to find, I'll instead provide links to other guides when neccessary.

The purpose of leveling an alt
There are mainly two reason to level an alt:

  1. Having more characters means that you'll have the ability to max out more professions. This is of great importance if you want to diversify your business (and if your serious about gold making, you should want this) and if you want to be able to make profit of every change in the game (think about Glyphmas).
  2. Rolling a character of a different class gives you a new prospective on the game. This is great both for finding a new interest in World of Warcraft in a boring period and to understand the needs of the other players (which can be useful to better understand your server economy and what is valuable for other classes first-hand, but also to play better when you're in a group).
Both of them should be enough to convince to start leveling alts: this weeks before Cataclysm are the best period, since most of the game has become a bit boring (except the AH, every price went crazy and it's kind of fun trying to guess how they will change in this days and how to maximize the profit).
Obviously most of you won't be able to level an alt from 1 to 80 before Cataclysm, it really depends on how much time you have to spend on it, but you should begin now, or start leveling the character you already have... If you don't have a Death Knight already you should consider starting with it, since you'll begin at level 55 and it's quite good at leveling.

Some thoughts about professions skill level cap
Once you reach level 75 you'll be able (come Cataclysm) to learn the final rank of your profession, rising your skill level cap to 525, but many sources are saying you'll probably need level 84 to learn all you need to actually reach skill level 525. Also if this wasn't true, there is another reason for which you should try to take your alt to level 80 before Cataclysm: for every profession there will be some recipes that you can buy only when you are of the appropriate level to complete quests or farm reputations.
So you should try to take at least the alts with the most interesting professions (or those to which you plan to give them) at level 80... In this way you'll have less work come Cataclysm to level them if you discover that you need to.
Inscription starts to be valuable at an early level, so you could want to make an exception and give inscription also to those alts that you don't plan to level up too much.

Gathering professions while you level
Whatever are the profession you want on your alt, you should give him gathering professions while you level (obviously this applies just to newly created characters... If you're just taking an alt from 70 to 75/80 to increase the maximum level of his professions, don't change the ones you already have!). Every guide you'll read, except those really new, will tell you not to do so, but now collecting herbs and mining give experience, so they won't slow your leveling as they used before 4.0.1... Skinning still doesn't give you experience, but it doesn't take you out of your way, so it's not a big loss of time.
Once you learn mining and/or herbalism you'll be able to track nodes of each professions (and of both professions at the same time). Most old player are not very used to this, and probably don't have both profession on the same character. If you can, you should take a character with both profession at maximum level and keep them, since this enable you to farm in a more efficient way (once you hit level cap your main source of income shouldn't be farming, but there is no reason not to be able to do it the best you can. This saves you lot of trouble if something is missing from the AH (as it's now on my server with herbs, since everyone is making glyphs and/or leveling inscription)).
Once you reach the level at which you want to take your character (75 or 80), you can unlearn the gathering professions and start learning two new ones.
Another option is keeping the gathering professions until 85, so if you plan to level your alt to 85 you'll also be collecting ores and herbs that will still very valuable for the first weeks (or even months) of the expansion. If this is the case, be sure to buy *now* all the mats from Northrend that you'll need to level the new professions you want to give them... All Northrend mats will grow in price some time after the expansion, since most people will be in the new maps. Consider their prices from now to December the 7th to be the minimum price at which you'll see them.

Crafting professions for when your alt reach the level cap
You should have on at least one character the following crafting professions:
  • Enchanting (this is better on your main)
  • Inscription
  • Jewelcrafting
Alchemy is also a good source of profit, but these are the ones you should absolutely have. Both Jewelcrafting and Inscription are made so that everyone has different recipes, so you'll find quite easily a niche all for you within the profession, while enchanting is both very profitable now that you can sell your enchants at the AH using [Enchanting Vellum] and sort of a gathering profession thanks to the ability to disenchant items (this second thing is why you should have it on your main).

These are the crafting professions you can have on more than one character without any loss:
  • Alchemy (since the more profitable things are on cool downs, doubling the character with this profession nearly double the profit done with Alchemy)
(I know it's just one, I'm keeping it in this format so I can change this easily if things change... You also have some utility from a doubled Jewelcrafting and Inscription, but I don't thing it's worth it, unless you already have all the other professions maxed out)

If you don't have a Tailor/Leatherworker/Blacksmith on your guild willing to help you to craft the items you need for your character you could also want to have one of these professions, usually on your main (to get high-level patterns that requires reputation with some raid).
Lastly, I'll repeat that having a farming alt is quite a wise thing... If you don't have lots of gold it's an insurance that will help you rise some money if you loose gold in a too risky investment (obviously this is just for when you're under 20k and you unwisely finished your money buying lots of [Razzashi Hatchling]  that became valueless shortly after... you shouldn't do that kind of thing, but some people are strongly pulled by the rush of making easy money, specially at the beginning), if you already have a good deal of money and don't need farming, this will still help you in those times in which some resources totally disappear from the AH.
It's been days since I had a chance of buying low and mid-level herbs on the AH and some times you just don't stockpile enough.

Best classes for leveling up
Since this is an alt and not your main, you should focus less on the role you want to play and more on efficiency. This has one exception: if you are not satisfied with your main character you should feel free to level something you think you may enjoy playing as your main, just to see if this is really what you want... If it isn't, you'll still have another alt, if it is you'll just have rerolled a new main. Please note that in case you want to rise an healer or a tank the best way is probably using the Dungeon Finder the most you can (this will also let you know how you actually play that class while in a group).
If you're just looking for fast leveling, your best choices are:

  • Death Knight (obviously)
  • Hunter (you should absolutely spec Beast Mastery to level)
  • Druid (you should spec feral, you'll also be able to join Dungeon Finders as a tank, meaning very fast queues. There is actually a distinct spec for feral cats and feral bears, but it won't do so much of a difference while tanking low-level dungeons, and taking some tanking talents won't totally screw your ability to kill mobs faster while questing)
If you want to use this alt as a gathering one, you should probably roll a druid, since it has an instantaneous flight form and doesn't have to exit from this form to gather things... It's like being able to gather herbs without dismounting (this has changed so many times now that you should check if this is still true when you read this guide... I'll try to keep the post updated). If you want your alt for crafting professions, and you don't care about RP, remember you don't need to be ashamed if your Death Knight is a Tailor... just because he's wearing plate he doesn't need to be a Blacksmith.

Buy that fast mount
There is no reason not to buy the fast mount and the 280% flying mount. You must remember that sometime, when you're thinking you're saving money you're actually just wasting time. Back in TBC, when you could get the 280% flight form just when you were already at max level it was useful just to gatherer, now you'll need it also for the next 15 level (counting the 85 level cap that we'll have in a few weeks).
However, except for gatherers (and main characters), I don't think the 310% flying mount is really worth the money.

The best free guides for power-leveling
My favorite site for leveling guides is wow-pro. They even have an addon to load their guides directly into your game... It has some glitches (not many), but it actually works quite well if you follow it from the beginning. If it doesn't work for you (that could happen if you started doing quest by yourself before loading the addon) just ignore the advices that doesn't apply to your situation (you can check the boxes to tell him to skip to the next step).
And if the addon bothers you too much (didn't happen for me), you can just read their guides, and maybe print them... Another good addon is Carbonite, it's a bit more precise than the new Blizzard's quest-tracking UI, I personally don't use it anymore (but I really use the less addons I can).
They're updating their guides to Cataclysm, so even if you read this post past December you can still follow my advice and go to check their website. For the most lazy of you, this is the page with the leveling guides.


I'm not giving you links to any profession-leveling guide, for three reasons:
  1. There are hundreds of them and since I didn't try most of them I can't really point you to the "best ones".
  2. All these guides are very easy to find, just Google for them
  3. Come Cataclysm everything will change, and not every website will be updated fast... I don't want to give links that will be outdated so soon (while wow-pro has already leveling guides for Cataclysm)
Anyway, the same wow-pro has some leveling guides for most profession, but their not at the same level as those to level your character (level level level... can I make this sentence without repeating so many time this word?). I strongly advice you to look for more than one source and try to compare them before starting, as this can save you gold and frustration.

Tuesday 16 November 2010

Move your bank alts to Exodar! (or Undercity/Silvermoon)

Still level 14, but fighting back
Great News: The Final Phase of the Elemental Invasion has begun!

Wicked cults unleash havoc on Kalimdor and the Eastern Kingdoms, and while lots of innocents are dying around you and the elements themselves are rebelling  against the once great dominion of Mortals... The thing that really makes you mad is that all of this makes all mailbox and bankers/auctioneers despawn in the cities of Stormwind/Orgrimmar and Ironforge/Thunderbluff.


Trying to hide
At first I laughed at my problem, and found the people complaining in trade chat quite annoying (but at that time I was killing the elementals, not checking the AH). When I found myself for the fifth time in the middle of an invasion (in just two days), I started to feel the problem...
But complaining doesn't help you: the best thing is to evacuate! 
For Alliance characters I suggest Exodar, since Bank and Auction House are closer than in the impossible city of the Night Elves. I'm not sure about what is better Horde side, I'll check tomorrow.

How some of your investments could become risk-free

Tip: When you're stockpiling for an incoming change, if you see that the anticipation of said change has already made the prices grow, sell part of your goods!


This is actually a technique I use with most things that common sense would tell will sell higher after some patch: I usually start to gather them well before the patch hits and, if their prices are high enough some days before the patch, I sell from 1/4 to 1/2 of them.
This made me some money in lots of situation in which I would normally have lost them. At the beginning of WotLK (when everyone had already reached level 80, but before Ulduar opened up), there was a patch that was rumored to make Dream Shards a lot more valuable. Prices skyrocketed: something like from 4-5g each to 15-16g (I'm not sure about the actual numbers, but it was pretty much like this) until the day of the patch, when in few hours the touch an historical minimum: they had even lost value compared to the prices pre-hype, as lots of players had stockpiled Dream Shards and couldn't find a way to get rid of them.
But since I had sold half of the Dream Shards I had stockpiled just before the patch hit, I actually managed to gain from the circumstances.
What if prices had went even higher after the patch?
I would have lost part of my income, but I would have done lots of money anyway. Selling those mats before the patch made mine investment totally risk-free.


How can I apply this in Cataclysm?

I'm not sure you can, actually. It depends on your server economy.
If there is a lot of people "playing the AH", then there is a good chance that some goods that should increase in value come Cataclysm (maybe the same you're stockpiling... if you're not, you should start to search the net for advices, read blue posts about the expansion and try to figure yourself on what you could do some profit). If prices on some of these items grow higher than when you bought them, just sell some... I usually do this only when prices double from when I took the items (or at least nearly double).

Some toughts about the [Razzashi Hatchling]


As most of you will probably know by now, the [Razzashi Hatchling] will remain in game.
Actually, most blogs didn't share the news. The first one to do so (at least, of those that I know) was Acadia's blog (the article is here), just one day after the blue post which confirmed this. Afterwards, we can see the news on some forums and on  http://warcraftpets.com.

I saw directly the news from mmo-champion's blue-tracker, but I could manage to just sell one of my [Razzashi Hatchling] before the news spread on my server. While I was trying to sell these now-not-so-profitable beauties (I'll keep one to learn, anyway) I was really hoping that JMTC wouldn't publicly announce the survival of the [Razzashi Hatchling], since I know that in my server there are people following Markco's blog (most changes in the market can be conducted to one of his posts... You wouldn't belive how much the price of [Adamantite Ore] rose after one of his posts).

The funny (sad for me) thing is that I was waiting just one week more to sell one of my [Razzashi Hatchling]! Since Blizzard didn't deny completely that the Hatchling could return, I wanted to sell one just before Cataclysm, hoping to find someone who didn't manage to farm it (or who wanted another one to flip six months after).
Which brings me to the argument of the next post*

Now, there are lot of reason for which lots of blogs didn't immediately alert their followers: some bloggers probably didn't see the blue post until this was common knowledge and didn't wanted to share old news, some could have decided to wait to help the "most aware" (and maybe themselves) to silently sell their [Razzashi Hatchling] in the first hours after the announcement, others maybe had other things to write about and didn't care about spreading a news that was already on internet. The important thing is that you should always check every possible source of information if you don't want to miss something.


*Edit: I divided this post in two different posts (adding some content to both in the process) for easiness of reading.

Monday 15 November 2010

Archaeology: Where to start


I've read some guides about Archaeology lately...
In case you didn't, I'll put here a bief synthesis:


  • Archaeology will be a secondary profession, i.e. everyone will be able to take it without having to remove any profession.
  • With Archaeology you'll be able to get some vanity items (pets and mounts, but also other things) and some BoA weapons which requires lvl. 85 ( = not leveling weapons). Those prices will be divided in "races" on which you can investigate (horde and alliance can both research on every race).
  • You won't get the same artifact twice, unless you have already discovered all artifacts that race could give you.
  • Dig sites can be seen on you map, not your mini-map.
  • Once you are in the zone which contains the dig sites, you have to search for the exact location using a surveying tool. Here you can find a good guide: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7x3WGF4fX0
  • First 100 skill points can come only from collecting the fragments, without completing the artifacts, so it's recommended that you keep the fragments you gather without completing any artifact until that point.


Now, it's a good advice to try and focus on a single race even when leveling the skill... Focusing on a goal is always useful, especially if there is the risk to get bored.
The races you can research on are limited by your skill level in Archaeology. You won't be totally sure of which race a dig site belong until you have taken the fragments from the site.
However, sites of a race spawns in "coherent" places: you'll better look for Night Elves in Kalimdor and for dwarfs in the  Eastern Kingdoms.

From the beginning you will be able to do research on the races of the Eastern Kingdoms and Kalimdor :

  • Night Elf 
  • Troll 
  • Dwarf 
  • Fossil

Starting from skill level 300 you will be able to research in Outland:

  • Draenei
  • Orc

Then at skill level 375, Northrend:

  • Vrykul
  • Nerubian

And once you reach skill level 450 you'll unlock the last race, located in the Cataclysm Zones:

  • Tol’vir
So, you'll start with plenty of option, let's see what the races of the "Old World" have to offer:

Night Elf:
[Tyrande's Favorite Doll] (BoA, requires level 85)
[Queen Azshara's Dressing Gown] (BoA, requires level 60)
[Bones of Transformation] (Transforms the user into a Naga for 20 seconds.)
[Wisp Amulet] (Transforms the user into a Wisp for 20 seconds.)
[Highborne Soul Mirror]
[Druid and Priest Statue Set]
[Kaldorei Wind Chimes]

Troll:
[Zin'rokh, Destroyer of Worlds] (BoA, requires level 85)

Dwarf:
[Staff of the Sorceror-Thane Thaurissan] (BoA, requires level 85)
[Clockwork Gnome] (BoP, pet)
[The Innkeeper's Daughter] Could be a second hearthstone (set on the same location of the first one), but it's not sure if it will share the cooldown with the normal hearthstone (thus becoming a substitute hearthstone with some flavor-text)
[Chalice of the Mountain Kings]

Fossil:
[Fossilized Raptor] (BoP, mount)
[Fossilized Hatchling] (BoP, pet)


It should be noted that you'll receive skill points for any artifact you solve, so you don't have to go to the outland once you hit 300. You can still remain in the old world, if you want to complete artifacts from one of these races. It also seems that the Night Elf, Troll, Dwarf and Fossil artifacts will need less fragment to be solved.

I think you should remain on these ones, specially if one of the ilvl 395 items that you can find is good for your class. As of now (everything can still change) the races from Outland and Northrend won't give you any useful-for-lvl-85 loot. Talking about changes, even the lists for the four starting races seems quite uneven... While I understand that "Fossil" could be just a "vanity item race", I'm not sure of why Night Elves get seven items and Trolls just one... So you should probably check again for changes when Cataclysm arrives.


 If you wish to continue your journey to the Outlands, you'll find:

Orc:
[Headdress of the First Shaman] (BoA, requires level 70)

Draenei:
[Arrival of the Naaru ]
[The Last Relic of Argus] (Teleports you to a random location)

And in Northrend:

Nerubian:
[Blessing of the Old God]
[Puzzle Box of Yogg-Saron]


Vrykul:
[Nifflevar Bearded Axe] (BoA, requires level 80)

Finally, in the "Cataclysm Zones" there will be just one race, the Tol'vir. The artifacts of this race are really the "final prices" of the profession, most of them BoA, with 3 ilvl 359 weapons.
Yes, unless you really devote a lot of time in farming this relics you may not get the weapon before the second tier of raids will be opened... But they're still BoA and can always be useful for an alt.

Tol'vir:
[Crawling Claw] (BoA, pet)
[Scepter of Azj'Aqir] (BoP, mount)
[Staff of Ammunae] (BoA, requires level 85)
[Pendant of the Scarab Storm] (BoA, vanity item)
[Ring of the Boy Emperor] (BoA, requires level 85)
[Scimitar of the Sirocco] (BoA, requires level 85)

Saturday 13 November 2010

A common error in an evolving economy


I was going to write a post with some advice on what you should check before buying on the AH something that seems a deal, but of which you never heard before.
It would have been one of those "avoid the typical newbie's error" post... The kind of post I think is at the same time too common and not common enough.

Then I stumbled upon something I think totally clarifies one of the things I wanted to explain, so I decided to write only about it.
Most people think that looking at wowhead.com for the item they want to buy or sell is enough to understand it's value, but actually it isn't. Let's go to the comment section on the page of the [Parrot Cage (Hyacinth Macaw)], one of the rarest pets in World of Warcraft (wowhead gives him a Buyout price of 8k, but you must consider that there is people selling it without knowing what it is for just some golds... It's actual value is more in the range of 15-20k if you find the right buyer).
By Malric on 11/07/2006 (Patch 1.12.2) - This parrot is one of the most beautiful collectible pets in the game. It looks great next to a character in full Netherwind set - the colors match perfectly.As the droprate is insanely low, this bird is usually expensive. If you're patient however, you can try to nail it cheap on the AH from someone who mistook it for one of the common parrots. I got mine for 1g, then another one for 35s. The second one went to the Auction House and made a nice 250 gold for me.
By 1silenoz 2 on 07/04/2010 (Patch 3.3.5) - I will never ever listen to a high rated green post here in wowhead. Thanks for this information I sold it a way lower than it worth. However, I suggest I made somebody's day better....1k guys, someone's lucky day.
This guy has lost such a huge profit, and why? Just because he didn't read the date in which the first post was made, or he didn't know what it meant. This is exactly the kind of blind following of instruction that could (and will, if you're not careful), cost you a lot of money.

People fail to remember that prices changed a lot in the past years, and actually change at each new expansion, when the level cap is raised. This, by the way, is what is the "inflation" everyone is talking about speaking about Cataclysm: the most expensive mount of TBC ([Cenarion War Hippogryph]) costs 2k*, while the one in WOTLK ([Reins of the Traveler's Tundra Mammoth]) costs 20k*. Back in Vanilla, everything required less gold, and everyone had less gold... 
And I'm not talking just about us AH-junkies, but everyone: before the introduction of daily quests in TBC, people had to farm hard to get their money, while now most people manage to reach a good amount of money just from these, creating a market in which vanity items are more required, since less players are struggling with mere survival and can now think about achievements (which ere also introduced in TBC) and collections.
There is also another thing that made the prices of vanity pets grow so much: the fact that they don't use bag space anymore once learned. For this, the phenomenon is even more clear in their case.


*prices before the reputation discount

Friday 12 November 2010

The dangers of following a WoW gold blog



I was looking The Undermine Journal (TUJ) yesterday looking at the economics of different servers (sadly, being ona EU server, mine isn't on TUJ), when I stumbled upon something weird. Between the "Hot Items" there were [Peacebloom]
and [Silverleaf]. I went to see the "Price and Availability History" of those two items and this is what I saw:

Peacebloom Price and Availability on Aerie Peaks US - Alliance side
Silverleaf Price and Availability on Aerie Peaks US - Alliance side
In both cases we see a very stable market that suddenly has an increase both in prices and availability. We can distinguish in both images two distinguished peak of this fenomenon, one in the morning and one in the afternoon. (you can see it better directly from TUJ, at least for some days, here and here), the latter one remaining stable for a while. After a while the prices became normal again, while the availability keeps growing a little longer.

Nearly the same happens for [Mageroyal] on Agamaggan, Horde side, Peacebloom on Alexstrasza Alliance, exept that only the prices rise, and not the availability, while in some other realms you may find some really "brief, but high" peaks in price:

Silverleaf Price and Availability on Borean Tundra US - Alliance side


Most server still aren't touched by this strange phenomenon, but the number of those who are is quite significant. Choosing servers and sides randomly, you will see some different pattern regarding low-lever herbs (Peacebloom, Silverleaf, Mageroyal) exactly November the 8th (Try it yourself). 

What happened on November the 8th?
Is it possible that lot of people started to level alchemy or inscription at the same time?
There was some blue post, or some mmo-champion report about how these profession will be cool come Cataclysm?

Or maybe one of the most famous blogs about gold making made a post about these herbs?


Here is a quote from the post:

"When I looked at my own server tuesday afternoon to see how prices were doing this is what I saw on average:

Earthroot : NONE.
Mageroyal : 5.5 gold each.
Peacebloom: 1.5 gold each.
Silverleaf : 15 silver each.
Of these only silverleaf had a decent amount on the ah (about 120). Mageroyal had 1 stack and peacebloom had about 50 of assorted stack sizes. "

Now, these weren't the prices of those herbs in the server where there were the peaks (except maybe for Silverleaf), nor there was any shortage. My guess is that Markco's blog has some followers in those servers who did the following things:
  1. Saw that the value of said herbs at the AH was much lesser than what they thought was their actual worth and started buying.
  2. Started farming the herbs hoping to make a good profit.
Of the two, the latter probably are the ones who lost less in the process (if they didn't waste too much time in farming), and they still will be able to sell those herbs in the next weeks, at normal rate... Or maybe even gaining something more from people power leveling alchemy and inscription when the new races (and the new races/class combos) will arrive with Cataclysm. Maybe in some servers they even succeed in selling those herbs to the people who did the first thing for some crazy prices!
But in both cases, people just followed blindly some advice without even checking what the reality of their server was. In every serious blog or guide about gold-making you'll find thousand of times the words "this could not work depending from your server economy", but still there is people that think gold-making is just following some formula you can just take out of context in a blog. 
You should still follow this kind of blogs, just try not to be that kind of person.